Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.902566 4.646697 5.473854 6.458550 7.595768 8.864707 10.384511
2025-05-04 2.855255 3.868187 5.122313 6.774975 8.879476 11.452320 14.816000
2025-05-11 2.104173 3.192522 4.671446 6.794318 9.723150 13.575627 18.970646
2025-05-18 1.543676 2.597063 4.153359 6.561699 10.121602 15.102407 22.486766
2025-05-25 1.139051 2.111219 3.662969 6.233546 10.273542 16.239568 25.529911
2025-06-01 0.898787 1.818913 3.392864 6.161211 10.749024 17.843026 29.356238
2025-06-08 0.718702 1.581349 3.156185 6.083915 11.176119 19.382752 33.200929
2025-06-15 0.634737 1.500477 3.170605 6.422700 12.309190 22.121722 39.142770
2025-06-22 0.531661 1.353996 3.032862 6.459104 12.913522 24.039131 43.910835
2025-06-29 0.444954 1.219307 2.889773 6.456044 13.433780 25.845975 48.628824
2025-07-06 0.372681 1.097843 2.748640 6.429418 13.896198 27.579115 53.345205
2025-07-13 0.353114 1.100004 2.871725 6.954243 15.463518 31.405662 61.999484
2025-07-20 0.311663 1.037459 2.844492 7.170837 16.474649 34.352615 69.408551
2025-07-27 0.278867 0.990069 2.845089 7.451013 17.652263 37.725002 77.881359
2025-08-03 0.236398 0.901799 2.728726 7.448715 18.240926 40.023588 84.542413
2025-08-10 0.190251 0.786243 2.517685 7.188533 18.241131 41.164034 89.089100
2025-08-17 0.149406 0.672247 2.283822 6.830219 17.973118 41.730364 92.551262
2025-08-24 0.124917 0.606183 2.168683 6.750901 18.325457 43.590190 98.694577
2025-08-31 0.104420 0.546790 2.059155 6.666809 18.652934 45.418516 104.897227
2025-09-07 0.097632 0.540518 2.112309 7.033764 20.106807 49.773320 116.571254
2025-09-14 0.084543 0.501754 2.052424 7.073155 20.753613 52.409186 124.824266
2025-09-21 0.072553 0.462551 1.981829 7.069826 21.290859 54.840711 132.802312
2025-09-28 0.061926 0.424762 1.906911 7.040980 21.757654 57.146321 140.657217